#inventorymyth #housingbubble #housingmarket #housingmarketcrash #commercialrealestate #silentdepression #2008 #gfc #creditcrunch #bankingcrisis #lossmitigation

M3 Market Update is a weekly to bi-weekly review of the current state of housing (including long and short-term rental), commercial real estate and mortgage finance with relevant data and drivers. Not investment advice.

In this week's episode I discuss recent data on mortgage applications and construction spending. Additionally we discuss a recent study by Fannie Mae that in 58% of comparables reviewed, values were likely inflated.

Link to Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/m3melod...

Misc references:

The Bezzle: https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafi...
Multifamily - Update with James Eng -    • December 2023 Multifamily Financing a...  
Substack on Lakewood Ranch: https://open.substack.com/pub/m3melod...

Listings for Sale

In the week preceding Christmas, we saw inventory drop on average by -4.46%. As mentioned in last week’s stack, this seems fairly standard due to seasonal factors. What’s more interesting are the places where it did not drop.

Top Cities with Largest % Increase in Inventory Week-over-Week (12/17-12/24):

Rosemary Beach 3.70%
San Antonio 2.37%
Tupelo .30%
Boca Raton .19%
Fort Myers .13%

Top Cities with Largest % Increase in Inventory Compared to 22-week Average (12/17-12/24)

Hoboken 47.53%
Bakersfield, CA 14.96%
Palm Springs, CA 14.13%
Fort Lauderdale 11.31%
Fort Myers 10.05%
West Palm Beach, FL 6.37%
Pembroke Pines 6.17%
Johnson City, TN 5.89%
Brattleboro 5.63%
Miami 4.64%

Top Cities with Largest % Increase in Inventory from Start (1/1/23)

Hoboken 75.34%
Bakersfield, CA 64.27%
San Ramon, CA 56.67%
Galveston, TX 42.68%
Fort Myers 37.64%
Coeur d’Alene, ID 33.94%
Dallas 27.57%
Knoxville 26.76%
Denver 19.83%
Austin 18.10% (knocking out San Fran)

Listings for Rent


Top Cities with Highest % Increase of Single-Family Rental Listings (12/17-12/24)

Portsmouth, NH 32.00%
Houston 6.93%
San Diego 6.73%
Pittsburgh 6.67%
Rochester 6.02%

Top Cities with Highest % Increase of Single-Family Rental Listings to 22-week Average

Portsmouth, NH 32.29%
Cape May 30.43%
Knoxville 27.25%
Dallas 26.15%
Houston 22.06%

Top Cities with Increases in Foreclosure (RealtyTrac) - Nov to Dec

Sevierville 25.00%
Dallas 19.57%
Scottsdale 19.35%
Tupelo 16.67%
San Antonio 7.65%



General Reference & Recommendations:

1) #silentdepression - For a review of what's really been going on in the economy since 2007 to understand the path of housing:    • We Are Living In A Silent Depression ...  . Follow @emilkalinowski on Twitter or YouTube.
2) Eurodollar University YouTube Daily Briefing:    / @eurodollaruniversity  
3) The term Eurodollar sounds kinda weird and the concepts are complicated, so I recommend going back to the very beginning where they lay it out very simply. This is a MASTER CLASS in monetary policy and the plumbing of the financial system:    • Video  
4) And for an episode on some of the myths surrounding the Fed:    • Market Rates Refusing to Follow Fed's...  
5) The Fourth Turning: https://www.amazon.com/The-Fourth-Tur...
6) A Brief History of Doom: https://www.audible.com/pd/A-Brief-Hi...
7) Swamp Peddlers - https://www.amazon.com/Swamp-Peddlers...

FHFA Home Price Index: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/...

Case Schiller Home Price Index: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CS...


Please reach out to me with questions or comments:
Twitter: @m3_melody
LinkedIn:   / melody-wright-44204a4  
Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com