If you want to make something truly big, you'll realize you have to be a short term pessimist, and long term optimist. This is the opposite of what most would-be founders actually have. And that, I think, is why most startups fail.

Most founders pursue ideas that are very short term, and they're wildly optimistic about these short term goals. And they ignore obvious things in front of them that should cause them to change course. But as Bill Gates says, they wildly overestimate what can be done in one year, and wildly underestimate what can be done in 10.

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00:00 Intro
00:48 Short term pessimism
02:43 Short term optimism
05:30 Long term optimism

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I’m Garry Tan, venture capitalist and cofounder at Initialized Capital. We were earliest investors in billion dollar startups like Coinbase and Instacart, and I’m a Forbes Midas List Top 100 venture capitalist in the world. We want these videos to be about helping people build world-class teams and startups that touch a billion people. Our startups have gone on to create more than $40 billion in market value so far, and Initialized has over $770M in assets under management. I’m doing my own one man YouTube channel with no staff or crew — we're going for raw and unfiltered, not perfect.

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