Leading Russian economist Sergei Guriev says Western sanctions are working but warned that the billions Putin still gets will be used to kill Ukrainians. Guriev, who fled Moscow in 2013, says the price cap on Russian oil appears to be working, meaning less money for the Kremlin to buy military technology from third countries like India, China and Turkey. But while Russian technocrats are working to keep the economy afloat, “they help Putin to continue destroying Russia's future.” Asked about whether Putin has changed his long-term goals, Guriev, now a professor and provost at Sciences Po in Paris, says the president has always been corrupt: “He's not an empire builder - he's more of a palace builder.”

Correction from April 13, 2023: In the interview Conflict Zone referred to Mr Guriev as a former Kremlin advisor. We would like to correct the record and state he was in fact a leading Russian economist, former head of the Moscow’s New Economic School and former chief economist at the EBRD (European Bank of Reconstruction and Development). We apologize for the error.

#russia #ukrainewar #putin

Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:51 Sarah Kelly welcome
01:08 How long can Putin hold on & fund war?
01:40 Frozen central bank assets vs. oil & gas revenue
02:10 Impact of economic sanctions on battlefield, artillery production
02:40 Classified economic data
03:00 Military technology from third countries: Turkey, India, China, Kazakhstan, & Emirates
04:20 Macroeconomic instability, Russian GDP
04:56 Way of Iran or Venezuela
05:45 Russian recession and decline
06:30 Bureaucrats and alleged Russian war crimes
07:20 Immorality and funding Putin´s war machine to kill Ukrainians & Russia´s future
08:02 Russian businessmen "suicides"
08:20 Murder of Boris Nemtsov, attempted assassination of Alexsei Navalny
09:10 Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on isolation of Moscow, China, Xi Jinping, Global South
09:45 Syria, Eritrea, Nicaragua supporting Russia
10:07 "Friendship without limits" would be weapons without limits and cash without limits
10:20 Russia buys munitions from North Korea and Iran, not China
10:40 Ambassador Fu Cong on rhetoric vs reality
11:35 Western price cap on Russian oil and India
12:45 Bakhmut and Russian domestic stability
13:25 Predicting mass protests and riot police joining them in Russia
14:46 Personal choice to leave Russia in 2013
16:10 e Ilya Yashin, who didn't leave and Vladimir Kara-Murza imprisoned
16:27 Dimitry Peskov on travel restrictions
16:56 Very few happy people in Russia´s inner circle and ICC warrants
18:05 Putin Cold War speech to Bundestag
18:40 Black Sea palace builder, not empire builder
19:50 Putin´s COVID isolation
20:45 His initial social contract growth and corruption vs democracy and checks & balances
22:14 When he´s gone the system will have to change
23:00 New Perestroika or North Korean style repression
23:15 He bet everything he had on war in Ukraine
23:53 Slobodan Milosevic in The Hague,
24:00 Peace requires returning all occupied territory, borders of 1991, pay reparations and send war criminals to tribunals, Russian anti-war committee
25:00 Lessons from post-WWII Germany

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