Prediction markets enable you to bet on the outcomes of real-world events by buying shares for those outcomes. Share prices can be interpreted as the probability that the underlying event will happen, therefore they provide an aggregate measure of what the market's participants believe. Prediction markets have been found to provide very accurate probabilities, and there have been interesting proposals to use them for improving institutional decision-making. In this video, we'll explore all of this and more. Examples of prediction platforms are: Augur and Polymarket (on the Ethereum blockchain), predictIt, the FTX crypto exchange, and Metaculus.

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

🟠 Patreon:   / rationalanimations  

🟢Merch: https://crowdmade.com/collections/rat...

🔵 Channel membership:    / @rationalanimations  

🟤 Ko-fi, for one-time and recurring donations: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Twitter:   / rationalanimat1  

Discord:   / discord  

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀LINKS & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Wikipedia on prediction markets (it's pretty good): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predict...

Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases, by David Rothschild: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40467652

Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs? (by Robin Hanson): http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarch...

Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (by Robin Hanson): https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarc...

Augur: https://augur.net/

Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/

PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/

FTX: https://ft-x.info/

ElectionBettingOdds: https://electionbettingodds.com/

Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀OTHER STUFF▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Share this video with a friend or on Social Media:    • Will we grab the universe? Grabby ali...  

Playlist with all the animated videos:    • The Planning Fallacy: Why You Struggl...  

Bitcoin address: 1FX4iepZfh1yuMNYtvYf2CWL7gha8cakuf
Ethereum address: 0xDa8463494Dd233c3aBe59bc42Abc4D50823A5f3

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

BIG thanks to our patrons & members from the simple adder tier and above:

abp
Bleys Goodson
Dawson
Francisco Lillo
marverati
Matt Parlmer
Michael Zimmermann
no special person
Trevyn Case
William Deng
Austin Cluff
Connor
Dang Griffith
Daniel Cunningham
FusionOak
John Slape
Mark Gongloff
Matthew Brooks
Neel Nanda
rictic
Robin Hanson
Ryouta Takehiko
Ashten The Platypus
Bryan Egan
Calvin McCarter
Chris Chapin
Craig Ludington
Dan Wahl
David Mc
Florian
Gabriel Ledung
Jacob Van Buren
Jeroen De Dauw
JHeb
Lars Osborne
Logic
Luke Freeman
Meade Marmalade
Nathan
Nathan Fish
Nicholas Kees Dupuis
noggieB
Raphaël Lévy
Roboroger
Sephiths
Superslowmojoe
Tim Duffy
Z
Lexi X
Simson
רם רינגל

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

Script by:
- Matthew Barnett
- :3

Animation by:
- :3:3

Narration by Robert Miles:    / robertmilesai