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Frontlines in Ukraine often move only slowly - but that does not mean the war is being fiercely fought day by day. Often this takes the form not of territory taken, but of exchanges of fire either over the frontlines or, critically, against operationally or strategic targets behind the lines.

For nearly a year, Ukraine relied primarily on HIMARS and M270 to counterbalance Russia's advantage in longer ranged weapon systems, but successive Russian defensive adaptations (including pushing targets out beyond GMLRS range) mean that these systems are not always viable answers to Ukraine's pressing military needs.

The arrival of British Storm Shadow missiles presents a step change in Ukraine's long range capabilities. Today I look at how that aspect of the war has evolved, the significance of the Storm Shadow system, and how Ukraine's allies are steadily building its ability to fight at Operational ranges using this and other systems. In that context it becomes clear that Storm Shadow is not a war winner or 'game changer' but that it does represent a major step forward in capability for Ukraine.

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Caveats/Comments & Corrections:
As this is a topic covering ongoing (and some particularly recent) events in Ukraine all usual caveats over uncertainty and information quality apply

At one point I refer to UK inventory levels of Storm shadow as being 800-1000. I had intended to refer to the number procured (I have no information on how many remain) and so the details on the slide should be deferred to over the audio there

I would also note that Russia has regularly made claims of shooting down Storm Shadow missiles over the last fortnight. These are difficult to assess, as shoot downs are both expected and technically possible - but should not be taken as given in my view given Russia's record of overclaiming

Sources, reading & notes:
Thanks as always to featured twitter accounts and OSINT aggregators

RUSI - Russian tactics in the second year of its invasion of Ukraine
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research...

RUSI - The Russian Air War
https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Ai...

ADM-160 MALD in Ukraine
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...

Example Russian air-strike claim as featured
https://tass.com/defense/1622603

Russian GLSDB claim
https://tass.com/defense/1598449

Reporting on 9M544 and 9M549 rockets used in UA
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/ne...

Russia claiming to shoot down Grom-2
https://t.me/mod_russia/25230

Reporting on the use of Storm Shadow
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/18/po...

UA Weapons Tracker featuring Storm Shadow Fragments
  / 1657317762157477888  

Reporting on S-300 ground attack
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...

RUSI - Preliminary lessons in conventional warfighting
https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukrain...

Reporting on Vilkha
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...

Poland to open HIMARS service centre
https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...

Netherlands orders PULS
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/ne....

Featured example of ATACMS reporting
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/us...

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/...


Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Long Range Weapons in Ukraine
00:01:35 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:59 — Long Range Fires & Target Brackets
00:14:30 — The Balance of Equipment
00:22:42 — The Long-Range Fight So Far
00:30:17 — Russian Fires & Evolution
00:36:25 — Russian Defensive Adaptation
00:43:24 — Answering The Question
00:54:29 — Evolution In Ukraine
01:04:09 — Global Interest
01:08:33 — Conclusions
01:09:39 — Channel Update