Weekly Economic Outlook: Andrew Hilton's take on the global economy - and, in particular, on the economic and financial implications of the 'conflict' in Ukraine.

Why you should watch: There's more going on besides the war in Ukraine. In particular, there is the high-level; meeting convened by the US in the Israeli desert - just ahead of Ramadan - to head off the threat of a nuclear crisis over Iran. But Putin's Big Adventure is still top of the list. It is not going well for him - but it is not going well for the global economy either, making the twin problems of inflation and recession even more of a threat. Hilton's conclusion: inflation is headed (even) higher, but the outlook for the global economy still leaves a little wriggle-room. The problem is really that, if expectations drive economic activity, we are in trouble. Contemporaneous data is not too bad, but expectations are poor. Other than that, the EU's Digital Markets Act and the trans-Atalantic deal on data protection seem to be pulling in different directions, but what both underscore is the importance of tech. As for next week, watch US NFP - but also Biden's budget proposal. It will be mauled by Congress, but the boost in defence spending is a shoo-in.

Andrew Hilton stepped down as Director of the CSFI at the beginning of this month, and is currently spending a couple of weeks in the US. He will continue to write on economic issues for whoever is willing to read his views. He is a former economist and project officer at the World Bank, a former journalist (with the FT) and a visiting professor at the LIBF. He was educated at Oxford (MA), Wharton (MBA) and Penn (MA and PhD).

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Produced/edited by Alex Treptow