Economic Outlook: Andrew Hilton On Nuclear War, Inflation, Recession & Stock Market Collapse

Why you should watch: Against a geopolitical background in which otherwise sane politicians, journalists and academics are vying with each other to push the world to the brink of nuclear war, central bankers and Treasury Ministers have to cope with three (almost) existential problems - inflation, recession and the very real possibility of a stock market collapse. Add to that a fourth, that may be genuinely existential for many people - a crisis in the emerging markets caused by food shortages and rising interest rates. Not a good look for a world that seemed impervious to bad news only three years ago - and a slap on the face for those arch-globalists meeting this weekend in Davos for the first face-to-face WEF in over two years. Still, the basic message is the same: inflation is real and present; recession is still (largely) hypothetical. So, concentrate on the immediate issue - which means higher interest rates and a more rapid reversal of QE - even if there is likely a price to be paid in terms of economic pain down the line.

Andrew Hilton is the co-founder and former Director of the CSFI, from which he stepped down at the end of March. He is a UK/US-educated PhD economist, a former World Banker, a former journalist and an occasional economic and financial consultant (with two books on Third World debt to his name). He was appointed OBE right before the GFC broke, and is now available for children's parties.

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