This is a follow-up to my video on Dave Ramsey's belief that retirees can start with an 8% withdrawal rate, adjust the amount each year by inflation, and be perfectly fine in retirement. The problem that Dave seems to have overlooked is what is known as sequence of returns risk.

In his analysis, he uses average market returns and average inflation. But nearly 30 years ago Bill Bengen debunked this approach in a 1994 paper. The problem is that two retirees can enjoy the same average returns and inflation yet have two very different results. How?

Sequence of returns. If one retiree enjoys strong markets and low inflation in the first decade of retirement, their financial results may indeed support a higher initial withdrawal rate. In contrast, if the second retiree suffers through bad markets and high inflation during the first decade, they could run out of money using an 8% withdrawal rate in as little as 10 years.

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ABOUT ME

While still working as a trial attorney in the securities field, I started writing about personal finance and investing In 2007. In 2013 I started the Doughroller Money Podcast, which has been downloaded millions of times. Today I'm the Deputy Editor of Forbes Advisor, managing a growing team of editors and writers that produce content to help readers make the most of their money.

I'm also the author of Retire Before Mom and Dad--The Simple Numbers Behind a Lifetime of Financial Freedom (https://amzn.to/3by10EE)

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