Weekly Economic Outlook: Andrew Hilton's (centennial) wrap-up of global economic, financial and geopolitical events

Why you should watch: A sort of 'letter from America' - or at least, from the end of Long Island. Biden is (political) dead meat; there is a surprising diversity of view on what the US should do about Ukraine - and no one seems keen to send US boys to fight and die over there. As for the global economy, the war is hitting us all - not least through energy markets. But EMs are being hit extra hard by collapsing food exports. It will be a tough Ramadan in both the Maghreb and Mashreq. On the three big economic issues that have dominated Western policymakers for some time, the news is mixed. Inflation is clearly bad - and getting worse. Growth is in some jeopardy - but, perhaps, things are not quite as bad as some are suggesting. And,as for markets, well.. bond markets have been hit hard, but equities still seem astonishingly resilient. One new factor is clearly the US yield curve inversion - usually (though not always) a sign of recession to come. One thing that is worth flagging: the shift of opinion on China - from global juggernaut to (at least potentially) the 'sick man of Asia'.

Andrew Hilton is the former director (and co-founder) of the CSFI. He began his career at the World Bank in Washington, spent a number of years as an economic consultant in Athens and as a journalist in NY, before returning to the UK where he split his time between the Centre and his own economic consultancy. He has a PhD in Economic and Political Development, has written a couple of books on debt:equity conversions, and is also a Visiting Professor at LIBF.

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