Weekly Economic Outlook: Andrew Hilton's Letter From America
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 Published On Apr 11, 2022

Weekly Economic Outlook: Andrew Hilton's 'letter from America'

Why you should watch: No change in what really matters. The Ukraine war could be a tipping point for globalisation and for the global economy - and the food crisis that it is creatring is spreading its impact far wider than we had expected. But don't forget the other geopol crises either: the Iranian nuclear negotiations appear stalled, and Pakistan's abrupt change of leadership could trigger regional instability. Two other thoughts: there is a pretty strong case that the war will accelerate the decline of the dollar as the world's 'hegemonic' currency, and it will almost certainly accelerate the development of alternatives to the US-dominated SWIFT payments/messaging system. Neither is good, in the longer term, for Washington's international power and influence. Other than that, it's the same old story this week: rising inflation and a fear that the combination of higher prices and global uncertainty will push us back into recession. As for politics, well, don't believe what you read about the 'threat' to Macron on April 24. There isn't a voter to the left of the President who will ever put his/her cross next to Le Pen's name. And, remember, the big story of the French election so far is not Le Pen's strong showing; it is that she almost lost 2nd place to the old-line Trot, Jean-Luc Melenchon.: The Hard Left is back.

Andrew Hilton is the former director of the CSFI, currently trying (none too successfully) to accommodate to 'retirement' - or, as he thinks of it, unemployment. He is a former World Bank economist, journalist and economic consultant, educated at Oxford, Wharton and Penn, who is mildly sceptical about Europe but who speaks quite good American.

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Produced/edited by Alex Treptow

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