Elections in Taiwan 2024 (Pt. 3)

Douglas H. Paal, Distinguished Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Former Director, American Institute in Taiwan (2002–2006)

Sarah Liu, Senior Lecturer in Gender and Politics, University of Edinburgh

Ji Ye, Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies, Xiamen University

Moderator:

Steven M. Goldstein, Director, Taiwan Studies Workshop, Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University

On January 17th, the Fairbank Center hosted the third installment of our series on the Taiwan elections. Moderator Steven M. Goldstein, Director of the Center’s Taiwan Studies Workshop, opened the talk by acknowledging the expectations and surprises of the election. While the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by Lai Ching-te—who was the favorite to win the election—did secure the presidency, Goldstein observed that surprises emerged from elections for Taiwan’s parliamentary body, the Legislative Yuan. “Now, for the first time, there's a third party that seems to have some standing or some lasting power,” Goldstein said, predicting that the divided legislature would give rise to “unusual bargaining and coalition making.” 

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Distinguished Fellow Douglas H. Paal, University of Edinburgh Senior Lecturer in Gender and Politics Sarah Liu, and Ji Ye of the Xiamen University Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies then discussed the election results’ implications for Taiwan’s political development and cross-Strait relations. Paal and Goldstein highlighted long-held skepticism among select Taiwanese voters about the United States’ commitment to defending Taiwan. The Lai administration, the panelists agreed, will continue to negotiate the complex dynamics of Taiwan's political landscape. “Taiwan [feels] that they don't need to be used as a card,” Paal said. “They can play their own game without having America deal the hand.”