As the War in Ukraine drags on, you might be wondering what the possible outcomes are to the end of the war. In this video, we’ll look at some possible scenarios.

Recently the Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg has predicted that the Ukraine conflict could continue for a long time. Recently Russia has refocused its efforts on eastern Ukraine. Although it’s difficult to know exactly what Putin’s goals are, some believe that he still aims to control the whole country and that we should anticipate that the war may last for anywhere from months to even years. Let’s take a look at three possible scenarios that could unfold.

This first scenario would include a partial defeat for both sides. Putin might accept a partial defeat by taking the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, known as the Donbas region, as Russian territories. Crimea would also be officially recognized as part of Russia. Private companies who pulled out of Russia would need to be persuaded somehow to begin business again in Russia. If this scenario happened, Putin would have to closely monitor and control anti-government sentiment. After Russia fully retreats from Ukraine, they would most likely be isolated from the international order, and potentially face war crime charges against military personnel and politicians.

Ukraine and the West would need to agree to gradually removing sanctions in exchange for Russia’s withdrawal of troops. Sanction removals would be contingent on assurances from Putin to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. Ukraine would need to agree to a cease-fire, and Zelenky would maintain control of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine would agree not to join NATO and possibly the European Union as well. Ukraine would need support in rebuilding its infrastructure and economy. The refugee crisis of millions of Ukrainian refugees would somehow have to be reversed. Some sort of road map for normalization of relations would be articulated, but it would not be clear on what terms.

In this second scenario, Russia defeats Ukraine and Ukraine becomes a puppet state for Russia. This new puppet state would have complete control of Ukraine’s military and its civilians. Russia would continue to be isolated and would reconstruct an iron curtain around Ukraine and Belarus. Ukrainians would likely never truly welcome a Russian-installed leader, producing a long-term and brutal insurgency. Russia’s success could give confidence to other member countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (which includes countries like China, India, and Pakistan) to join together in a new multipolar order. With Putin still in charge, Russian and Chinese plans for the decoupling of certain economic dependencies from the West will continue. Also due to the economic sanctions on Russia, Russia will be incentivized to move away from the dollar and also the fact that Russia is a major supplier of oil and gas to Europe will complicate and divide Europe on trying Russia for war crimes.

In this third scenario, the sanctions on Russia and the political elite cause a regime change in Russia as a result of a domestic coup or popular revolt. According to Russia's constitution, Mikhail Mishustin as prime minister should step in as acting president, and elections would be held three months later, but this sort of smooth transition is highly unlikely. The most likely successor could possibly come from Putin’s inner circle but only after a messy contest for power. Looking back in history when the Soviet Union dissolved, Mikhail Gorbachev attempted to shore up support in his inner circle before it turned against him in a largely botched coup. That coup, however, paved the way for Boris Yeltsin, a populist figure outside of Gorbachev’s inner circle, to come to power. Overall, Russians will likely turn to populism and nationalism to rebuild.

Sources:
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/...
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/17/...

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