After nearly three years with a front-row seat to China’s burgeoning military capabilities, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Navy Adm. John C. Aquilino, offered a parting warning to lawmakers on the country’s expanding geopolitical objectives. China’s actions are becoming much more belligerent, their rhetoric is clearer. They have now articulated that the feature at Second Thomas Shoal, is sovereign territory of the People’s Republic of China.
Perhaps most dangerous in the Philippines. On Tuesday, Chinese Coast guard blast a Philippine vessel with water cannons in the Scarborough Shoal, which China claims as its own. It also claims the Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese boats have rammed Philippine boats trying to resupply a ship the Philippines intentionally grounded.
The U.S. acknowledges it is obligated to defend the Philippines. Are Chinese actions increasing the chances of U.S.-Chinese conflict?
China claims almost the entire South China Sea, brushing off rival claims from other countries, including the Philippines, and an international ruling that its assertion has no legal basis. The triangular chain of reefs and rocks that make up Scarborough Shoal, lies 240 kilometers west of the Philippines' main island of Lozon, well with-in the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone. While nearly 900 kilometers from Hainan, the nearest major Chinese land mass.
Since seizing the shoal, Beijing has deployed its coast guard and other vessels, that Manila says harassed Philippine ships, and prevent its fishermen from accessing the rich lagoon. The latest incident came as the Philippines and the United States held a major annual military exercise that has infuriated Beijing.
Manila and Washington have a mutual defense treaty, and recent confrontations between Philippine and Chinese vessels have fueled speculation of what would trigger it. President Marcos said last month, that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had given assurances that the treaty would be invoked, if another foreign power killed a Filipino soldier.
Aquilino warned that Beijing continues its aggressive military buildup, modernization, and coercive gray-zone operations, all indications pointing to President Xi Jinping’s directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
Also becoming more alarming, is China’s actions in and over the South China Sea, highlighted earlier incident when the Philippines accused the Chinese coast guard of using water cannons and obstructing a Philippine resupply mission in the region, dubbing it the most serious incident so far. Aquilino highlighted the country’s bullying behavior stretching from India to Malaysia and Vietnam, and emphasized that the U.S. would respond in line with the defense treaty agreement.
The fire hosing of our Philippine allies, the ramming of their ships and preventing their ability to resupply their sailors on the Sierra Madre, as well as restricting their ability to utilize the resources inside their Exclusive Economic Zone is all counter to international law, Aquilino said. We continue to articulate that Article Five of the mutual defense treaty applies if the Philippines, as our allies, were to be attacked.
More and more countries are responding the China’s aggressive behavior and looking to secure their interests in the region. Seeing it from likeminded countries of U.K. and European nations, more of them are going to deploy naval and military assets to the Pacific. The centrality of Association of Southeast Asian Nations is important to the region. And it’s not, that they’re not seeing it. Their concern is about speaking out, and being at risk from China’s economic coercion, and other behaviors that will negatively impact their nation.


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