The Black Swan is a book about risk, by polymath, Nassim Nicolas Taleb.

Black Swans risks that meet 3 criteria
1. Outlier - not expected from previous experience
2. Extreme impact
3. Explainable after the fact

You can think of a black swan event as an Unknown Unknown.

However, we do believe we could have predicted it… with hindsight

Taleb gets the name, Black Swan, from a quote from Juvenal:
"rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno"
("a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan")

Black swan events arise from the limitations of our knowledge. We need to understand this, as part of our understanding of risk management.

Taleb also identifies:
- Grey Swans
Known Unknowns
- White Swans
... such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties - it was a Known-Known with low but finite likelihood - indeed some may predict it with high levels of precision.


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